Highlights:
- We have revised our oil market forecasts and now anticipate that Brent crude futures will record an average of USD 69/b in 2018. A potential move to as high as USD 80/b appears possible in the current climate.
- UAE’s non-oil private sector growth increased slightly in April, with PMI reaching 55.1 (54.8 in March). However, strong output and new order growth has not translated into faster employment growth.
- In terms of UAE's trading partners, Asia (developing & advanced) topped the list with 40.4% of the total trade volume amounting to USD 197.1bn in 2017.
- Appetite for business credit in the UAE as a whole increased moderately in Q1 2018, with a decrease in demand reported in Abu Dhabi, according to the latest credit sentiment survey by UAE Central Bank.
- In terms of outlook, demand for business loans is expected to increase further in Q2 2018 while demand for personal loans in aggregate is expected to remain weak for the same quarter.
- The headline Dubai Economy Tracker Index (DET) fell to 53.9 in April from 55.3 in March and from a 2018-high of 56.0 in January. Both output (57.1) and new work (58.0) increased sharply last month but at a slower rate than in previous months.
- The employment index signaled a marginal increase in jobs last month, with the index at 50.3, up from 49.7 in March.
- Residential real estate prices accelerated their decline in Q1 2018, albeit on low volumes. The composite Phidar Advisory price index (80% freehold apartments and 20% freehold villas in selected communities) declined -7.0% y/y in March.
- The number of tourists coming to Dubai and staying in hotels including holiday rentals and on-board cruise ships for at least one night reached 4.65mn in Q1 2018, up by 1.8% compared with the same period last year.
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Emirates NBD Research
