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Weekly data from the EIA was largely overshadowed by geopolitical risk events creeping back into the oil market. Persisting tension between the Kurdistan Regional Government and the central Iraqi government on the KRG’s independence referendum along with US president Donald Trump de-certifying Iran’s compliance with the JCPOA all raise the risk of disruptions to supplies from MENA.
US data for the first week of October showed another decline in production as output fell ahead of Hurricane Nate hitting the Gulf of Mexico coastline. Stocks dipped 2.7m bbl while the rest of the barrel was more mixed. US exports of crude oil fell from their level of nearly 2m b/d at the end of September but at over 1.2m b/d still remain exceptionally elevated compared with historic levels.
