Week Ahead 26 February 2024

Preliminary Eurozone CPI data for February will be this week's key economic release. The consensus suggests that headline CPI and core CPI will ease to 2.6% and 2.9% y/y, respectively. While energy prices have risen, declines in food, consumer goods, and services have offset the overall increase.

In the US, personal income, spending and PCE data for January is scheduled for later this week. Both headline and core PCE are anticipated to rise to 0.4% m/m from December's 0.2%, driven by residual seasonality and increased prices of portfolio management services. However, due to the base effect, core PCE likely dipped to 2.8% y/y in January from 2.9% in December. Expectations are for core PCE inflation to continue easing down to 2.5% y/y and lower by mid-year.

Turkey's Q4 GDP data is set to be released this week, with an expected slowdown to 3.5% y/y from 5.9% in Q3, mainly attributed to the tightening of monetary policy.

In Asia, China's PMIs and Japan's CPI data are due later this week. China's official manufacturing PMI is anticipated to signal a fifth consecutive month of contraction, dropping to 48.8 from January's 49.2. The non-manufacturing PMI is also expected to slip to 50.2 from 50.7. In Japan, core CPI is projected to slow to 1.9% y/y from 2.6%, marking the first time since March 2022 that core CPI inflation falls below the Bank of Japan's 2% target.

Download the Economic Calendar for 26 Feb-1 Mar