03 May 2018
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US crude stocks jump

Crude inventories are holding at their five-year average

By Edward Bell

Oil barrels EIA2

Crude inventories in the US built at a rapid pace last week, up more than 6.2m bbl. While the overall level continues to bump along the five-year average of around 430m bbl, this week’s increase shows that some mega builds are still possible. Gasoline stocks rose 1.2m bbl while overall refinery input declined.

Crude inventories find a new floor?

Source: EIA, Emirates NBD Research

Crude output also continued its upward climb, rising by 33k b/d last week. The pace of growth in US crude output is accelerating, up to 1.33m b/d y/y as of the end of April compared with 1.26m b/d at the end of March. We are skeptical at how close US producers will actually get to the EIA’s projections but the pick-up in pace, elevated oil prices and a rising rig count sets the path for further gains over the rest of 2018.

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Written By

Edward Bell Head of Market Economics

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