US data in recent weeks has pointed to hotter than expected inflation and a still robust economy, prompting markets to reprice expectations for rate cuts in the near term. Emirates NBD now expects the Fed to delay the first rate cut to September, and we have pencilled in two 25bps rate cuts by year-end. With the ECB and the BoE likely to start easing monetary policy earlier than the Fed, the prospect of US dollar weakness in H2 2024 has receded.
The GCC economies have proved to be remarkably resilient in the face of higher interest rates and elevated geopolitical uncertainty. Investment is expected to remain the main engine for growth, particularly in Saudi Arabia, which saw greenfield FDI more than double last year.