EIA data helps support WTI in wake of Harvey

Last week’s EIA data helped WTI markets recover some ground but as far as fundamental flows are concerned, it will be largely disregarded as it reflects the market’s conditions before Hurricane Harvey. To us the most significant data point will have been the persistent, if small, rise in US production to over 9.5m b/d.

Over the next few weeks we would expect to see crude inventory numbers build as production outside PADD 3 (the Gulf Coast region) will have been relatively unaffected by the storm while refinery utilization will likely have plummeted owing to the impact of flooding. Initial reports of restarts at some refineries has helped narrow the RBOB-WTI crack at the end of the week but disruptions to refinery output will keep gasoline elevated near term.

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