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Market highlights at last close:
The UAE will establish a National Industrial Resilience Fund with total capital of AED 1bn to expand domestic production and support local supply chains. The fund will focus on sectors including food production, manufacturing, primary metals, mechanical and chemical industries as well as pharmaceutical supplies. The UAE cabinet has also approved a change to the national in-country value added programme to make it mandatory across certain sectors rather than voluntary.
The US and Iran diplomatic inertia remained in place with no resumption of direct bilateral negotiations. US President Donald Trump announced that he had cancelled the trip of his envoys who were due to fly to Pakistan to engage in talks, saying a reported Iranian offer to end the conflict was “not enough.” Vessels transiting through the Strait of Hormuz remain highly limited, helping to sustain oil prices at elevated levels.
The US Justice Department has closed a criminal investigation into the cost of renovation at the headquarters of the Federal Reserve. The decision follows a few days after Kevin Warsh, the nominee as the next chair of the Fed, appeared before the Senate Banking Committee and may assuage lawmakers into supporting Warsh’s appointment. However, incumbent chair Jerome Powell may still serve in his capacity as governor of the Fed in a term that does not end until 2028. The Fed sets policy this week and there is virtually no chance of a rate change given the inflation threat to the economy posed by higher energy costs.
Türkiye unveiled a wide range of proposed tax incentives to support exporters and increase investment and operations in the Istanbul Financial Center. Taxes on manufactured exporters will now face a corporate tax rate of 9%, down from 20%. Other exporters will also benefit from a cut in tax rates to 14%. Firms operating in the Istanbul Financial Center will also benefit from a 100% tax deduction for transit trade and overseas brokerage activity.
Saudi Arabia and Switzerland have signed an investment agreement to boost reciprocal finance and trade flows following a visit of the Swiss president to the Kingdom. Total bilateral trade between the two countries was estimated at USD 9bn in 2025 with Switzerland Saudi Arabia’s 13th largest trading partner.
The final print of the University of Michigan April US consumer sentiment index hit at 49.8, down from 53.3. The April estimate was revised up from a flash estimate released earlier in the month but is still the lowest on record as consumers expect a marked acceleration in inflation over the next 12 months. Most respondents to the survey expect a deterioration in their household finances over the next year and most expect labour market conditions to worsen over the same period.
Today’s upcoming data and events
18:30 US Dallas Fed manufacturing activity
Fixed Income
US Treasuries rallied late in the session on Friday on news that the Department of Justice had dropped its criminal investigation into the Fed’s renovation costs. Yields on the 2yr UST fell 6bps to 3.7783% while the 10yr yield was lower by 2bps at 4.3007%.
Regional credit had a soft final two sessions in the week as uncertainty on the geopolitical situation weighs on markets. A GCC-wide index of USD-denominated bonds dropped by 0.2% on Friday with losses in sovereigns, corporate and sukuk markets. Across geographies there were also consistent losses.
CDS prices pushed higher for most markets in the GCC and wider Middle East. Saudi Arabia was the outlier with CDS prices falling, highlighting the relative resilience of Saudi financial markets during the period of the conflict.
FX
The US dollar sold off at the end of the week with losses against all major peer currencies. EURUSD ended the session up 0.3% at 1.1722 while GBPUSD added almost 0.5% to 1.3532. USDJPY also pulled in favour of the yen, down 0.2% at 159.38.
In emerging markets the Indian rupee weakened five days in a row last week, closing Friday at 94.2587, down 0.2%. The Turkish lira also capped a week of depreciation though with limited move on Friday at 45.0103. EGPUSD was flat at the end of the week at 52.6175.
Equities
Global benchmark equity indices closed mixed on Friday with the Dow Jones lower by 0.2% while the S&P 500 added 0.8% and the NADSAQ rallied more than 1.6%. In European markets the FTSE traded lower by a steep 0.8% while the Euro Stoxx index settled 0.2% lower. Asian markets also reported a mixed session with the Nikkei up nearly 1% while the CSI fell 0.4%.
Locally equity markets have responded positively to the corporate results season. The DFMGI ended Friday higher by nearly 0.7%, a move tracked by the ADX 15, also up 0.7%.
The Tadawul started the week on a moderately stronger footing, up 0.1%. Materials and real estate stocks led the way higher at the start of the trading week while utilities and technology stocks were laggards.
Commodities
Oil prices sustained gains each day last week though momentum faded in the final session. Brent futures closed Friday up 0.3% at USD 105.33/b while WTI was lower, down by 1.5% at UDS 94.40/b. The lack of clarity on whether there will be a resumption of direct US – Iran negotiations or the status of the ceasefire continue to keep oil markets in substantial uncertainty with the net result being higher prices.
The gains are also being reflected in natural gas markets apart from Henry Hub and in products markets. Gasoil futures are still up nearly two-thirds since the start of the conflict and LNG delivered into Asia more than 50% higher.
Gold prices ended the final session of last week higher by 0.3% at USD 4,709/troy oz, lifting the rest of the precious complex higher. Industrial metals had a mixed session with copper and aluminium higher while iron ore was flat.
Edward Bell
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