05 October 2026
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Soft US jobs figures ease pressure on Fed

Daily Outlook

Nick Stadtmiller

By Nick Stadtmiller

Key Developments

US hiring slows sharply: Nonfarm payrolls increased by just 29,000 in September, well below expectations, while gains in the previous two months were revised down by a combined 60,000. The unemployment rate edged up to 4.2%, and markets reduced the probability of another Federal Reserve rate hike in October.

Equities gain after payrolls: US stocks rose on Friday as the softer labour-market data reduced expectations for near-term Fed tightening, with the Nasdaq gaining 1.2% and the S&P 500 also advancing. The dollar weakened against both the euro and yen, although an initial rally in Treasuries faded and the 10-year yield ended higher.

OPEC+ holds output steady: OPEC+ kept November production targets unchanged at its meeting on Sunday, in line with expectations. The surprise came from Saudi Arabia, which cut its official selling price for Arab Light crude to Asian buyers by $3/b for November, despite expectations for an increase, as the kingdom’s crude exports continue to recover towards pre-conflict levels.

Today’s Major Data

Türkiye publishes CPI, PPI: Türkiye will publish September consumer and producer price inflation data today.

US ISM services due: The US ISM services index for September is due later today.

Written By

Nick Stadtmiller

Nick Stadtmiller Chief Economist and Group Head of Research


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