All eyes will be on Vienna today where OPEC starts its formal meeting

• Existing home sale in the US fell to 5.57 million vs expectations of 5.65 million and lower than 5.71 million in the previous month mainly as a result of lower availability of inventory. Average home prices in the US rose more than 6.8% in the year to March 31, and are expected to rise more than 2.5% this year which weakens incentives to sell. The minutes of May's FOMC, released overnight, support our view that the Fed is likely to raise the Federal Funds rate at the June meeting.  Most officials indicated that "it would soon be appropriate" to tighten monetary policy again provided that the economic data was supportive. Looking at the labour market, the April payrolls and unemployment data suggests that this condition has been met, although clearly the May data will be important as well. On the growth and inflation front, where recent data has been somewhat softer than expected, the Fed appears to view this as likely due to "transitory" factors, although officials noted that it would be prudent to wait for further evidence that this was the case.  
• The minutes also showed that the FOMC discussed a plan to gradually shrink the Fed's balance sheet; a process which may even start this year.  The plan would likely involve very slowly increasing caps on monthly balance sheet run-offs, with more details about this plan likely to follow in due course.  While the Fed appears to be in no rush to shrink its balance sheet, nearly all officials said it would be "appropriate" to start the process this year, provided the expected path of rate hikes remained on track.      
• All eyes will be on Vienna today where OPEC starts its formal meeting. A nine–month extension is widely expected and an option for another three months is also likely to be up for discussion.
• Later in the day today we will see UK Q1 GDP which is expected to reflect q/q growth of 0.3% as consumer spending may have cooled. Also US initial jobless claims are likely to be near decade lows of about 238K even though Q1 GDP growth was sluggish.

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