Choose your website and language
Daniel Richards - MENA Economist
Jeanne Claire Walters - Senior Economist
Published Date: 18 September 2023
US industrial production rose 0.4% m/m in August, following a downward revision to 0.7% m/m growth in July. The outturn beat consensus expectations for a 0.1% m/m rise. Growth on the month was largely driven by higher energy extraction and power production, while the output of more interest rate sensitive goods – such as autos, construction supplies and transport equipment- was more lackluster. The start of auto workers strike action is likely to dampen industrial production in September.
The New York Fed’s empire manufacturing survey, a measure of factory activity in the state, rose sharply in September. The survey measure rose almost 21 points from -19 in August to a value of 1.9, well above expectations for a rise to -10. A value above zero is an indication of an expansion in activity. The improvement was driven by stronger new orders and shipments. The New York Fed’s expected business conditions index also increased on the month, reaching its highest level since March 2022.
The preliminary print of the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey dropped in September, declining 1.8 points to 67.7. The fall in the headline index was driven by a decline in the current conditions index, with a noticeable deterioration is the durables buying conditions index. A rising share of consumers also reported that they expect the unemployment rate to rise over the next year. More encouragingly, the recent rise in fuel prices does not seem to have filtered through to inflation expectations, with both the 1-year ahead and 5-10 year ahead expectations declining. Expectations of 1-year ahead inflation fell to 3.1% y/y from 3.5% the month prior.
Today’s Economic Data and Events
Moodys warns on US government shutdown
BoE keep rates unchanged