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Jeanne Claire Walters - Senior Economist
Published Date: 19 September 2023
The UAE recorded a fiscal surplus in 2022, on the back of a robust 31.8% y/y rise in revenue. This rise was in part driven by an increase in tax receipts, reflecting the robust pace of GDP growth seen in 2022. Expenditure, in contrast, rose by a more muted 6.1% y/y.
Yasser Omar, deputy chairman for the Planning and Budget Committee in Egypt’s parliament has confirmed that the anticipated IMF review into the USD 3bn programme will not take place in September as scheduled, due to an ongoing delay in implementation of some of the required reforms, especially around the exchange rate. Reports suggest that review discussions could take place around the sidelines of the upcoming Bretton Woods meetings in Morocco in October, although the IMF has said that there are no set dates.
The week ahead is busy one for central bankers, with over half of the G20 nations due to announce monetary policy decisions this week. The US Federal reserve decision, due on Wednesday, will be the most keenly anticipated. The FOMC is widely expected to hold rates unchanged at an upper bound of 5.5%. Perhaps more importantly, the policy announcement will include an update of the summary of economic projections. The previous dot-plot, published in June, suggested that the majority of FOMC members expected the upper bound to be at 5.75% by end-2023. We expect the Fed to keep rates unchanged at the September meeting, with cuts starting in mid-2024.
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