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Monthly Insights - June 2022
Khatija Haque - Head of Research & Chief Economist
Edward Bell - Senior Director, Market Economics
Daniel Richards - MENA Economist
Published Date: 28 June 2022
The last few weeks have seen inflation remain higher than expected in key markets, and developed market central banks signalling an acceleration in the pace of monetary policy tightening. We now expect the Fed funds rate to end the year at 4% on the upper bound, and the Bank of England to raise the bank rate to 2.5% by December.
Higher interest rates and a stronger US dollar are likely to weigh on non-oil growth in the UAE in the second half of the year, although with a strong Q1 GDP reading for Dubai of 5.9%, we still expect full year growth of around 4.5% for the emirate.
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