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Daniel Richards - MENA Economist
Jeanne Claire Walters - Senior Economist
Published Date: 15 September 2023
The ECB raised rates for the 10th consecutive time yesterday. The 25bps hike took the deposit rate to an all-time high of 4%. Comments from the ECB hinted at the possibility of this being the final hike in the current cycle, saying “interest rates have reached levels that, maintained for a sufficiently long duration, will make a substantial contribution to the timely return of inflation to the target”. The ECB also revised down growth expectations for the bloc. They now expect GDP growth of 0.7% in 2023, revised down from a previous forecast of 0.9%, while the forecast for 2024 has been lowered to 1% from 1.5%.
The value of US retail sales rose 0.6% m/m in August, significantly higher than consensus expectations for a 0.1% rise. The rise on the month was however largely attributable to higher gasoline prices, lifting the value of fuel sales by 5.2%. Once those are stripped out the value of sales rose by a more muted 0.2% m/m. US consumers are expected to come under increasing pressure in coming months with the resumption of student-loan repayments and signs of a gradual weakening in the labour market. Separately, US initial jobless claims rose by 3k to reach 220k in the week ending September 9th, slightly below consensus expectations for a rise to 225k.
US PPI rose 0.7% m/m in August, up from a 0.4% m/m rise in July. The increase in producer prices was largely driven by higher gasoline prices, which rose 20% in August. Excluding fuel and food prices, PPI rose by 0.2% m/m.
Today’s Economic Data and Events
Fixed Income
FX
Equities
Commodities
Dubai government debt down to 25 percent of GDP
27.09.2023
Moodys warns on US government shutdown
26.09.2023
September PMIs show further economic weakness in Europe
25.09.2023
BoE keep rates unchanged
22.09.2023
Dubai: Transport & storage sector to remain a key driver of growth
25.09.2023
Fed leaves rates unchanged but with hawkish dot plot
21.09.2023