Week Ahead 4 March 2024

The key economic releases this week include US jobs data, ECB and Bank of Canada rate decisions, Turkey CPI data, and PMI data for China, Japan, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, India, the UK, the Eurozone, and the US.

The US non-farm payroll data, expected on Friday, is forecasted to show a slowdown after January's surge. The consensus predicts a decrease in non-farm payroll to 200k from the 353k jobs added in January. Additionally, US job openings data for January are anticipated to indicate a slight cooling in the labor market, with the January JOLTS report forecasted to show a decline in job openings from 9.03 million in December to 8.7 million in January.

The ECB is expected to maintain rates at 4.5% during its meeting this week. President Christine Lagarde has indicated that the ECB’s next move for interest rates is likely downward, although the governing council is not yet ready to cut rates. Fresh forecasts from the ECB’s staff economists are expected to present a downward revision for GDP figures and inflation in 2024, with the ECB awaiting more wage data before considering rate easing.

The Bank of Canada is also expected to maintain its rates at this week's meeting. Canada’s economy sidestepped an anticipated technical recession with a surprising GDP increase in the fourth quarter. The Bank of Canada will look for more concrete evidence of softening inflation before considering rate reductions.

In Turkey, inflation is anticipated to worsen, with the CPI YoY forecasted to reach 66% in February, up from 64.9% in January. The CPI MoM is expected to slow to around 3.85% in February from 6.7% in January. Despite this expected decline, the MoM inflation rate of 3.85% is still more than twice the five-year average of 1.8%.

Download the Economic Calendar for 4-8 Mar