Week Ahead 25 March 2024

The US personal income, personal spending, and PCE deflator, along with the final Q4 GDP readings for the UK and the US are the key economic releases this week.

Following a robust US jobs report and a rebound in retail sales in February, the consensus suggests that the data for personal income and personal spending will also show significant increases. The forecast predicts a rise in personal income by 0.4% in February, up from 0.2% in January. Personal spending is expected to have accelerated to 0.5% in February from 0.2% in January, bolstered by a 5.4% rise in auto sales during the month. With both income and spending anticipated to increase, the headline PCE is forecasted to rise by 0.4% m/m, up from 0.3% in January, and by 2.5% y/y, from 2.4% in January. Core PCE is expected to decelerate to 0.3% m/m from 0.4% in January but remain steady at an annual rate of 2.8%.

Download the Economic Calendar for 25-31 Mar