Week Ahead 12 February 2024

The US and UK CPI data for January will be key economic releases this week. The US economy's disinflation trend is expected to persist, with CPI and Core CPI dropping to 2.9% and 3.7% y/y, respectively. This decline is expected to be driven by decreased used car prices and housing rents.

The UK CPI is forecast to rise to 4.1%, while core CPI is expected to remain unchanged at 5.1% y/y. The projected CPI increase is likely to be due to rising energy and services prices, with services inflation expected to climb from 6.4% to 6.8%.

Additionally, the UK's Q4 GDP data is set to be released this week, with consensus forecasts projecting a 0.1% decline q/q for the second consecutive quarter, meeting the technical definition of a recession. A weak economy may prompt the Bank of England to consider easing monetary policy while monitoring inflation, although MPC members pushed back against any imminent easing in comments at the close of last week.

On a regional note, Dubai, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia will release CPI data later this week.

Download The Economic Calendar for 12-16 Feb