Week Ahead 11 March 2024

CPI data for the US, India, and Saudi Arabia, along with UK labor market data and Dubai PMI, are the key economic releases this week.

US CPI is expected to rise 0.4% m/m in February, up from 0.3% m/m in January, driven by higher gasoline prices. However, core CPI inflation is forecast to slow slightly to 0.3% m/m in February from 0.4% m/m in January. The slight decline is due to an expected drop in core goods, particularly used car prices. On an annual basis, headline inflation is forecast to remain unchanged at 3.1%, while core inflation should drop slightly to 3.7% from 3.9% in January.

In the UK, labor market data will be closely monitored by the Bank of England and market observers. Sticky wage growth may delay the first cut from the Bank of England. Average weekly earnings 3m/y/y are forecasted to slightly decline to 5.7% in January from 5.8% in December. Weekly earnings excluding bonus 3m/y/y are expected to remain steady at 6.2%. The Labor Force Survey is still affected by a low response rate; however, the consensus is that the unemployment rate will remain unchanged at 3.8%.

India’s CPI data is forecast to decline slightly to 5.07% y/y in February from 5.1% y/y in January.

Download the Economic Calendar for 11-15 Mar