UAE recorded fiscal surplus in 2022

The UAE recorded a fiscal surplus in 2022, on the back of a robust 31.8% y/y rise in revenue. This rise was in part driven by an increase in tax receipts, reflecting the robust pace of GDP growth seen in 2022. Expenditure, in contrast, rose by a more muted 6.1% y/y.    

Yasser Omar, deputy chairman for the Planning and Budget Committee in Egypt’s parliament has confirmed that the anticipated IMF review into the USD 3bn programme will not take place in September as scheduled, due to an ongoing delay in implementation of some of the required reforms, especially around the exchange rate. Reports suggest that review discussions could take place around the sidelines of the upcoming Bretton Woods meetings in Morocco in October, although the IMF has said that there are no set dates.

The week ahead is busy one for central bankers, with over half of the G20 nations due to announce monetary policy decisions this week. The US Federal reserve decision, due on Wednesday, will be the most keenly anticipated. The FOMC is widely expected to hold rates unchanged at an upper bound of 5.5%. Perhaps more importantly, the policy announcement will include an update of the summary of economic projections. The previous dot-plot, published in June, suggested that the majority of FOMC members expected the upper bound to be at 5.75% by end-2023. We expect the Fed to keep rates unchanged at the September meeting, with cuts starting in mid-2024.

Today’s Economic Data and Events

• 13:00 EZ CPI July: Forecast 5.3% y/y
• 16:30 US housing starts Aug: Forecast -1% m/m

Fixed Income

• Moves in US Treasury yields were mixed on Monday. The more interest rate sensitive 2yr yield rose 2bps to reach 5.054%, while the 10yr UST yield fell 2bps to 4.303%.
• In the UK, the 2yr Gilt yields rose 2bps to 5.011% and the 10yr Gilt yield rose 3bps to reach 4.384%.
• European bond yields rose, in general, on Monday. The 2yr Bund yield was up 4bps to 3.246%, while the 10yr increased by 3bps to 2.703%. Similarly,

FX

• The dollar was weaker against a basket of other currencies on Monday, with EURUSD rising 0.33% to reach 1.0657. GBPUSD was essentially unchanged by the end of the day, remaining at 1.2383.
• USDCAD fell 0.29% to 1.3486, while AUDUSD and NZDUSD rose 0.08% and 0.31%, respectively, to reach 0.6437 and 0.5917.

Equities

• European equity markets started the week on the back foot, following on from the sharp losses logged in the US on Friday. The composite STOXX 600 ended the day down 1.1%, with the DAX also dropping 1.1% and the CAC down 1.4%.
• There was a more mixed performance in Asia at the start of the day as the Hang Seng dropped 1.4% but the Shanghai Composite added 0.3% while the Nikkei closed 1.1% higher.
• In the US, the three major indices managed to eke out some modest gains after Friday’s losses. The Dow Jones and the NASDAQ closed almost flat, while the S&P 500 added 0.1%.
• Locally, the DFM added 0.1% while the ADX dropped 0.6%.

Commodities

• Oil prices continued their bullish run on Monday, following on from the third weekly close higher in a row last week, as upcoming market tightness becomes ever more apparent.
• Brent futures closed up 0.5% to close at USD 94.4/b, while WTI added 0.8% to USD 91.5/b. Both benchmarks are heading higher once again this morning.
• Saudi Arabian oil minister Abulaziz bin Salman told an energy conference in Canada that the ‘jury was still out’ with regards the strength of Chinese oil demand, saying that OPEC was working to keep oil markets stable.