UAE: 4.0% GDP growth in 2024

• The UAE saw real GDP growth of 4.0% in 2024, driven by 5.0% growth in the non-oil economy.
• The oil sector lagged with growth of around 1.0% as oil production curbs remained in place.
• We forecast a headline expansion of 4.8% this year, on 4.7% non-oil growth and an acceleration to 5.0% for oil GDP.

The UAE logged real GDP growth of 4.0% in 2024 according to a statement published by WAM, driven by 5.0% growth in the non-oil economy and a little less than 1.0% growth in the oil sector. This beat our predictions of a headline growth rate of 3.7%, with both components coming in a little stronger than our expectations of 4.5% growth in non-oil GDP, and flat growth in hydrocarbons activity. With higher base effects following several years of strong growth and somewhat softer PMI readings through January to May we forecast non-oil growth of 4.7% this year. For the oil economy, we forecast a significant acceleration in growth to 5.0%. Together, this gives us a headline growth forecast of 4.8% in 2025.

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