Saudi Arabia: GDP 2024 final print

Saudi Arabia has released its final Q4 and 2024 growth figures, with a modest upwards revision to the quarterly figure (to 4.5% y/y from 4.4% on the initial reading), while full-year growth was confirmed at 1.3%. The economy ended the year with good momentum with the quarterly growth print the strongest since Q4 2022 and up from 2.8% y/y the previous quarter. The oil sector saw positive growth for the first time since Q1 2023 as additional oil production curbs passed through the base, while the non-oil sector maintained its robust pace of growth at 4.6% y/y and government activity was up 2.2%. For 2024 as a whole, the oil economy contracted by 4.5%, compared with a 9.0% contraction in 2023. Non-oil GDP grew 4.3%, down marginally from the 4.4% growth seen the previous year, while government services saw growth of 2.6%, up from 2.1%. In nominal terms the economy grew to SAR 4,070bn (USD 1,084bn). The crude petroleum & natural gas sector remained the largest component at 22.3%, followed by government services (16.2%).

Of particular interest on the final growth print is the sectoral breakdown provided, giving greater insight as to what is driving the robust expansion in the non-oil economy. The strongest growth in 2024 was in wholesale & retail trade, restaurants & hotels which expanded by 6.4%, down from 7.0% previously. This robust growth is reflective in part of the social changes ongoing in Saudi Arabian society, with habits changing and the range of food outlets continuing to expand rapidly. The burgeoning tourism trade is also playing a key role. Tourism minister Ahmed al-Khateeb has said that Saudi Arabia welcomed 30mn international visitors last year which would have been y/y growth of 9.4%, while domestic tourism is also expanding rapidly. Developing the tourism sector has been a major focus of the Vision 2030 plan and is likely to maintain a fast pace of growth, especially given the numerous international events scheduled to be held in Saudi Arabia over the next decade. As the largest sectoral component of GDP with a weight of 10.3%, it was the primary growth driver last year.

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