Revising our outlook for oil prices in 2026

• Oil prices are sustaining elevated levels as the war in the Middle East shows little sign of de-escalation. As of 23 March 2026, Brent futures were trading at more than USD 110/b, up more than 80% since the start of the year.
• The Strait of Hormuz remains closed, threatening energy market buffers, while shut-in production will take time to return to pre-war levels.
• The reopening of the strait to normal levels of oil and gas shipments is the key variable in determining the trajectory for energy prices in 2026.
•  We are revising our outlook for oil prices and now target Brent at an average of USD 90/b in Q2 with upside risks. For the second half of the year we are expecting prices to moderate though the outlook remains contingent on oil exports from Middle East producers recovering.

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