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The Federal Reserve began its rate cutting cycle with a 50bps cut to the Fed Funds rate in September and planning for a steady downward move in rates. The US economy still appears to be in good shape and the Fed will be trying to make policy less restrictive rather than adding any stimulus.
Oil prices have sold off sharply over the last two months and we expect prices will be lower on average in 2025 than they were this year. Our forecast of USD 73/b for Brent prices means that fiscal balances across the GCC economies will soften but governments will nevertheless maintain investment projects to support the development of their non-oil economies.
Edward Bell
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