Monthly Insights - October 2023

Major central banks are likely at or near the end of their hiking cycles, with the Fed and the Bank of England expected to follow the ECB in keeping interest rates unchanged this week. With inflation still well above target, a resilient US economy, and energy prices posing an upside risk in Q1 2024, we don’t expect rate cuts until mid-2024 at the earliest.

GCC economies are also faring well in terms of non-oil sector growth despite higher interest rates, with both the UAE and Saudi Arabia on track for 5% non-oil GDP growth this year. Despite rising geopolitical tensions, the GCC countries are expected to push forward with their medium term development strategies, deploying their substantial balance sheets to support domestic investment and economic diversification.