Monthly Insights - October

The wider fallout from the conflict in Ukraine continues to reverberate through  global markets and economies, with oil  markets now focusing on the implication of a price cap imposed on Russian oil by G7 nations. The higher cost of imports has weighed on many emerging markets’ external positions through this year, not least Egypt where the central bank implemented an unscheduled rate hike on October 27 and pledged to move to a more flexible exchange rate regime. Morocco’s growth outlook has also deteriorated this year, with a local drought compounding the global issues. Developed markets have also been hit - the UK has seen significant political and economic turbulence over the past month in part driven by an escalating cost of living crisis.

By contrast, GCC economies continue to benefit from the oil windfall, and while the regional PMIs did slip in September, that was from multi-year highs, and the indices continue to point towards robust growth in the non-oil sectors as well as the oil sectors. In the US, our scorecard shows an economy that is coming under greater pressure but there has not to date been any signs of a slowdown to the degree that might prompt a pivot from the Federal Reserve.

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