Central banks in developed markets continue to plot a cautious path on how they will start to loosen monetary policy. Economic data in the US is showing signs of cooling though inflation remains a challenge for the Federal Reserve. At the same time, the trajectory for oil prices will depend on whether OPEC+ nations choose to extend their production cuts for the rest of the year.
Non-oil indicators from the GCC economies remain robust and we have upgraded our outlook for GDP growth in the UAE for 2024 to 3.7% thanks to growth of 5% in the non-oil sector. In Saudi Arabia, infrastructure investment is helping to support growth in the near term while also helping the long-term trend of diversification of the Kingdom’s economy.
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