Monthly Insights - March 2024

After a busy week for central banks, those in developed markets are preparing the ground for monetary policy easing in the coming months, once there is greater certainty that the disinflation seen thus far will be sustained. In the US, rate cuts in H2 2024 are likely to be driven by the desire to keep real rates stable as inflation falls, rather than providing support to the economy which is still in good shape. Several emerging market central banks have already started to ease policy rates, as has the Swiss National Bank which has front-run both the ECB and the Fed.

Survey data for the region suggests that GCC economies are still seeing solid non-oil growth in the first quarter of the year, and greenfield FDI into the UAE has held up well despite the rising interest rate environment last year. The UAE’s strategy to strengthen trade links outside the region is also likely to boost growth over the medium term.

 Download Monthly Insights March 2024