07 October 2022
1 mins clock icon

MENA Quarterly: Q4 2022

A round-up of our key article and forecasts for Q4 2022

By Daniel Richards

shutterstock_1234610386

The MENA region has to some extent been a tale of two parts this year. GCC countries have benefitted from sharply higher oil prices, turning budget deficits into surpluses, and increased oil production which has bumped up GDP growth. Non-oil sectors have continued their recovery from the pandemic as borders have reopened and the GDP statistics show a sharp rebound in transport and hospitality sectors as well as manufacturing and trade. However, the outlook for 2023 is more challenging, given the strength of the US dollar and the currency pegs in the GCC. Nevertheless, we expect the region to grow next year even as global recession risks have increased.

Outside of the GCC, oil exporters Iraq and Algeria will also benefit from the rise in oil production and prices, but political constraints will hamper efforts to translate this into higher non-oil sector growth. For the regional oil importers, the outlook is even less sanguine, with Egypt, Tunisia, and Lebanon all actively pursuing new IMF deals as their economies come under increasing pressure from global and domestic factors. Surging import bills have impacted external balances, while rising inflation has weighed on households as they recover from the pandemic.

Click here to download Full article

Written By

Daniel Richards Senior Economist

Edward Bell Head of Market Economics

Khatija Haque Head of Research & Chief Economist


There was an error during your feedback!

Your feedback is valuable to us and will help us improve.

More from Daniel Richards

Related Articles

Subscribe to our newsletter and stay updated on the markets

There was an error during your newsletter subscription!

Please try again to stay updated with all the latest financial news and valuable insights.

Thank you for newsletter subscription!

To stay updated with all the latest financial news and valuable insights.