20 January 2025
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GCC credit update - Jan 20 2025

Bonds rally in line with broader emerging markets

By Edward Bell

GCC credit had a positive session last week, snapping five consecutive weeks of losses. Emerging market bonds in general had a good week with Bloomberg’s emerging market index up 0.7%. A rally in US Treasuries lifted fixed income markets more broadly as inflation data in the US came in better than expected and raised the prospect of the Federal Reserve cutting rates several times this year. Markets will likely be choppy over this week as they respond to announcements coming out of a new Trump administration in the US.

Corporate results for 2024 will start to flow through over the next several weeks for the UAE, setting the tone for the market in the next month. Among key corporate news, KKR has announced it will invest in Gulf Data Hub a UAE data centre operator with operations across UAE and Saudi Arabia and a pipeline of work across the rest of MENA.

In local macro data, full year inflation for Dubai recorded an average of 3.3% in 2024, unchanged from 2023. Housing was the primary driver of inflation in Dubai last year.

An index of local UAE bonds rallied 0.4% last week, its first gain in the past six weeks. Markets across the GCC performed well with an index of bonds in Saudi Arabia up 0.8% last week while there were gains across the rest of the bloc. By sector, sovereigns across the GCC had the best performance at 0.8% with investment grade following at 0.7%.

Spreads widened across all GCC indexes in line with an increase in broader EM spreads over benchmarks. GCC spreads ticked higher but the pull lower in US Treasury yields meant that overall yields on GCC bonds edged lower.

Selected new issuances last week included:

  • Al Rajhi priced a USD 1.5bn sustainable sukuk perp at 6.25%, tighter than initial guidance.
  • Bapco Energies pried a USD 1bn 10yr sukuk at 6.25%, inside initial pricing at closer to 6.75%
  • Banque Saudi Fransi priced a USD 750m 5yr sukuk at T+85, inside of initial guidance.
  • Bank ABC had planned to issue a USD 400m AT1 perp but pulled the sale last week.

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Written By

Edward Bell Acting Group Head of Research and Chief Economist


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