Dubai Economy Tracker: Softer growth in July

The headline Dubai Economy Tracker Index (DET) declined to 54.9 in July from 56.0 in June, signalling the slowest growth in Dubai’s private sector in three months.  Both output and new work rose sharply in July, although not as much as in June.  Furthermore, the apparently strong demand was on the back of extensive price discounting, with average selling prices falling at the sharpest rate since January 2017.  At the same time, input costs continued to rise, further squeezing margins.  

Against this background, it is unsurprising that employment growth so far this year has been the softest on record.  Although the employment index ticked up to 50.9 in July, the average year to date is just 50.5, the lowest since the series began in January 2010.

Dubai Economy Tracker components

Source: IHS Markit, Emirates NBD Research

Sector survey highlights:

• The construction sector index eased to 56.9 in July but outperformed both wholesale & retail trade and travel & tourism last month.
• Wholesale & retail trade margins continued to be squeezed in July with higher input costs and slightly lower selling prices. 
• The travel & tourism sector index declined slightly to 54.5 in July, the lowest reading so far this year.  

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