Headline CPI inflation in Dubai slowed to 2.3% y/y in April, down from 2.8% in March. This marked the slowest pace of annual price growth since mid-2023 with a meaningfully lower petrol price offsetting still elevated upwards pressure on housing. On a monthly basis, prices were 0.3% higher, following the 0.1% m/m fall recorded in March. Annual inflation thus far this year has averaged 2.8%, in line with our previous forecast, but with oil prices set to remain under pressure through the rest of the year and most other components of the basket still seeing only weak price growth we have revised down our projection to an average of 2.5% this year, compared with 3.3% in 2024.