Abu Dhabi issues Eurobonds

US durable goods orders grew 2.6% m/m in March, broadly in line with the predicted 2.5% expansion, although the previous month was revised down from 1.3% on the initial print to 0.7%. The improvement was driven by an increase in orders at Boeing, from 15 in February to 113 in March. Stripping out the volatile transportation component, growth was 0.2%, in line with predictions and up modestly from 0.1% in February. This remains comparatively weak as business investment continues to be constrained by elevated interest rates and some political uncertainty around the upcoming elections towards the end of the year. GDP growth figures are expected today.

Germany’s IFO business climate survey came in above the consensus prediction yesterday, with the headline measure at 89.4 compared with the projected 88.8, and up from 87.9 in March. This marked the strongest reading for the index since last May in a further indication that the German economy is starting to turn the corner after the upside surprise in the PMI survey released the previous day. Both the current assessment and the expectations components of the measure beat both predictions and March’s results.

Abu Dhabi sold its first Eurobonds in three years yesterday, issuing five-, 10-, and 30-year tranches of a USD 5bn offering. The five-year portion, making up USD 1.75bn, was priced at 4.97%, or 35bps over USTs. We forecast a budget surplus of 3.8% in the UAE this year, but the issuance will help build the domestic yield curve, supportive of GREs coming to the market.

The UAE has announced that it will provide USD 544.5mn in funding in order to help citizens affected by the recent flooding in repairing their homes.

Today’s Economic Data and Events

15:00 Turkey one-week repo rate decision. Forecast: 50.00%

16:30 US initial jobless claims, week ending April 20. Forecast: 215,000

16:30 US GDP annualised q/q, Q1. Forecast: 2.5%

Fixed Income

• Yields on the 2yr UST were almost flat yesterday but slipping further away from the 5% level at 4.9269%. The 10yr yield closed up 4bps to 4.6417%.
• In the UK, 10yr gilts added 9bps to 4.334%.

FX

• The US dollar index closed up 0.2% against its basket of peers yesterday. The gains came against CHF, CAD, and JPY which all lost 0.3% against the greenback, with the closing at 155.35 and all eyes looking towards the BoJ meeting tomorrow.
• GBP was one of the gainers against USD, closing up 0.1% at 1.2464, while AUD added 0.2% to 0.6498 following the slightly hotter than expected inflation print yesterday.

Equities

• Equity markets continued on their winning streak yesterday wit the start of the trading day in Asia, with the Hang Seng closing up 2.2% and the Nikkei adding 2.4%.
• The gains initially continued in Europe but the major indices turned red later in the day. The composite STOXX 600 closed down 0.4% with the CAC dropping 0.2% and the DAX 0.3%. The FTSE 100 lost 0.1%, falling back from record highs.
• The US was mixed as the Dow Jones dropped 0.1%, the S&P 500 closed flat, and the NASDAQ added 1.0%.
• Locally, both the DFM closed flat and the ADX closed down 0.1%. In Saudi Arabia, the Tadawul fell 1.0%.

Commodities

• The general risk-off tone yesterday saw oil prices retreat somewhat from Tuesday’s gains, even despite the EIA reporting a 6.4mn bbl decline in crude inventories last week.
• Brent futures fell 0.5% to close at USD 88.0/b, while WTI fell 0.7% to USD 82.8/b.