UAE Central Bank approves support for flood-affected citizens

The UAE central bank has given approval for local lenders to defer loan repayments for people affected by the recent flooding for as much as six months, meaning that those individuals who were affected by the rising waters won’t incur any additional penalty fees or extra interest. Further, the bank confirmed to local insurance companies that if an individual’s house or vehicle was covered by ‘comprehensive insurance’, then that should be considered sufficient to cover it from recent rain damage.

Sultan Haitham, ruler of Oman, has been in Abu Dhabi on a state visit to the UAE, with the two leaders reportedly witnessing a number of agreements aimed at bolstering the two countries’ cooperation in a number of different fields including renewable energy and rail infrastructure. Cooperation on the latter will become increasingly important as the development of the railway line between the two countries moves forward.

CPI inflation in Lebanon fell to 70.4% y/y in March, down from 123.2% in February. This marked the slowest pace of annual price growth since May 2020 as a series of economic and financial crises in the country drover inflation into triple-digit territory for over three and a half years. A roughly 90% devaluation of the pound in March 2023 caused CPI inflation to spike once more last year, and as that has passed through the base inflation has now slowed sharply. On a monthly basis, however, inflation accelerated to 2.4% m/m, compared with 1.6% in February. Kuwait and Morocco also reported March inflation yesterday, with Kuwait at 3.0% y/y, down from 3.4% previously, and Morrocco at 0.9%, up from 0.3% in February.

Today’s Economic Data and Events

09:00 India manufacturing PMI, April

11:15 France manufacturing PMI, April. Forecast: 46.8

11:30 Germany manufacturing PMI, April. Forecast: 42.7

12:00 Eurozone manufacturing PMI, April. Forecast: 46.5

Fixed Income

• With geopolitical risks fading, a lack of major data points, and markets looking ahead to big tech earnings results, there was little movement in USTs on Monday. The 2yr closed at 4.9691%, 1bps lower than Friday’s close, while the 10yr yield also fell 1bps, to 4.6085%.

FX

• The dollar index closed down 0.1% against its basket of peers yesterday and is holding steady today as it consolidates recent gains. The dollar has still gained 4.7% ytd.
• The gains against the dollar yesterday were driven by the commodity currencies, with the CAD adding 0.4% against the greenback while the NZD and the AUD both gained 0.5% to close at 0.5919 and 0.6450 respectively.
• By contrast, the EUR, GBP, JPY and the CHF all closed lower against the dollar. EUR was almost flat, but JPY ended 0.1% lower and GBP and CHF both lost 0.2%.

Equities

• Equity markets started the week on the front foot, and gains in East Asia (the Hang Seng added 1.8% and the Nikkei 1.0%) were followed in Europe, where the composite STOXX 600 ended the day up 0.6%.
• The positive mood continued on Wall Street as the Dow Jones, the S&P 500, and the NASDAQ added 0.7%, 0.9% and 1.1% respectively.
• Locally, the DFM closed down 0.2% while the ADX ended the day 0.6% lower.

Commodities

• Oil prices dipped at the start of the week as the risk of a wider Middle East conflict appeared to subside. Both benchmarks closed down 0.3%, with Brent futures ending the day at USD 87.0/b, while WTI closed at USD 82.9/b.