UAE and Gabon sign a CEPA

The UAE and Gabon have signed a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA). The latest agreement, which will reduce both tariff and non-tariff barriers to trade, forms part of a broader strategy of positioning the UAE as a global hub for trade and will contribute to the goal of increasing total non-oil trade. Over the course of 2025 the two nations saw non-oil trade worth USD 320.7 million.

The UAE and US have signed a framework on securing the supply of critical and rare earth minerals. As part of the framework both countries will identify priority projects within six months to boost resilient, diversified supply chains.

The provisional print of the University of Michigan sentiment survey rose unexpectedly, increasing to a value of 57.3 in February from 56.4 in January, taking the headline measure to a six-month high. The improvement was driven entirely by a rise in the current conditions subcomponent, which increased to a value of 58.3 from 55.4. Respondents to the survey appear more sanguine about inflation risks, with one-year ahead inflation expectations moderating to 3.5% from 4.0% previously.

Japan’s Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi, won a snap election over the weekend. Her Liberal Democratic party secured a two-thirds super majority. She is expected to push ahead with expansionary spending and investment plans.

Today’s Economic Data and Events

• 13:30 EC Sentix investor confidence (Feb): Forecast 0.0
• 20:00 US NY Fed 1-YR inflation expectations (Jan)

Fixed Income

• US Treasuries fell on Friday, following the better-than-expected Michigan sentiment survey print. Yields on the 2yr rose 5bps to 3.4976% while the 10yr yield gained 3bps to 4.206%. Despite Friday’s rise, yields nonetheless remained lower on a week-on-week basis, with the 2yr and 10yr down 2bps and 3bps, respectively.
• European bond markets saw small mixed moves at the end of last week. The 10yr Gilt dropped 4bps to 4.514%.

FX

• The US dollar declined against a basket of major peer currencies on Friday, with the spot index down 0.2%. EURUSD rose 0.3% to 1.1815, GBPUSD gained 0.6% to 1.3611. USDJPY rose 0.1% to 157.22.
• In emerging markets, USDINR rose 0.3% to 90.7, while USDZAR fell 1.7% to 16.03.

Equities

• US equity markets rose on Friday, following several turbulent days of trading. The Dow Jones gained 2.5%, the S&P 500 rose 2% and the NASDAQ increased by 2.2%. On a week-on-week basis moves were mixed, with the Dow Jones up 2.5% but the S&P and NASDAQ lower by 0.1% and 1.8%, respectively.
• European markets also saw gains on Friday, with increases from Novo Nordisk offsetting weaker auto stocks. The Euro Stoxx 50 gained 1.2%, the FTSE 100 rose 0.6%, the CAC 40 increased by 0.4% and the DAX rose 0.9%.
• In regional markets the DFM gained 0.2%, while the ADX rose 0.3%.

Commodities

• Oil prices rose on Friday, with Brent futures 0.7% higher at 68.05/b while WTI was higher by 0.4% at USD 63.55/b. Prices nonetheless remain lower on a week-on-week basis, with Brent and WTI down 3.7% and 2.5%, respectively.
• Precious metals rebounded on Friday, following sharp falls on Thursday. Gold rose 3.9% to USD 4,964.36/oz while silver rose 9.8% to USD 77.84/oz.