Visitor numbers to Dubai reach 17.15m in 2023

Dubai welcomed a record number of international tourists in 2023, with visitor numbers to the Emirate rising 19.4% y/y, to reach 17.15m. The number of international visitors to Dubai in 2023 was also 2.5% higher than that seen pre-pandemic in 2019.

Chinese consumer price inflation fell 0.8% y/y in January, the fastest pace of decline since 2009. The decline was larger than the 0.5% fall that had been expected, and sharper than the 0.3% y/y drop seen in December. Producer prices also remained in deflationary territory, falling for the 16^th consecutive month. Falling prices underscore the current weak state of domestic demand in China, which is struggling under a continuing property market crisis.

German industrial production continued its downward trajectory in December, taking production to its lowest level since June 2020. The 1.6% m/m fall was significantly larger than the 0.5% m/m fall that had been expected and highlights the ongoing weakness in the industrial sector. Although there were gains in energy and automotive production, they were insufficient to offset sharp falls in construction and chemicals.

The US trade deficit widened marginally in December, from a value of USD 61.9bn to USD62.2bn. Both imports and exports increased 1.5% m/m. There were broad-based increases in both goods and services exports, while the growth in imports was skewed towards consumer goods. For 2023 that left the US trade deficit at its lowest level since 2009. In particular, the US trade deficit with China shrank 27% in 2023 to is smallest value since 2010, while the trade deficit with Mexico grew to a record high.

The IMF concluded its latest Article IV consultation for Qatar. The staff report highlighted the normalization of growth in 2023, following the 2022 Soccer World Cup, as well as the role of higher oil prices in strengthening the nation’s fiscal and external positions.

Today’s Economic Data and Events

• 17:30 US Initial jobless claims Feb 3: forecast 220K

Fixed Income

• US Treasury yields rose marginally on Wednesday, with the 2yr UST yield gaining 3bps to reach 4.4287% and the 10yr increasing by 2bps to 4.1211%. There was strong demand for yesterday’s auction of a record USD42bn worth of US 10yr bonds. Yields were also higher in other major European bond markets on the day, with the UK 10yr Gilt gaining 4bps to 3.9854% and the German 10yr Bund up 2bps to 2.315%.

FX

• Currency moves were mixed on Wednesday. EURUSD rose 0.16% to 1.0772 and GBPUSD gained 0.22% to 1.2626, while USDJPY rose 0.16%, to reach 148.18.
• AUDUSD fell 0.05% to 0.652, while NZDUSD rose 0.25% to 0.6113. USDCAD fell 0.21% to 1.3463.

Equities

• Major US equity indices gained on Wednesday, driven by large technology companies. The Dow Jones rose 0.41% and the NASDAQ gained 0.95%. The S&P 500 index came close to touching the historic 5000-mark, gaining 0.82%. European markets were, in contrast, weaker due to concerns about banks’ exposure to commercial property. The Eurostoxx 50 dropped 0.26%, the Dax fell 0.65%, the CAC 40 declined by 0.36%, and the FTSE fell 0.68%.
• Locally, the DFM rose 0.2% on Wednesday, while the ADX gained 0.31%.

Commodities

• Oil prices rose again on Wednesday, supported by continued geo-political tensions. Brent futures increased 0.79% to USD 79.21/b while WTI gained 0.75% to USD 73.86/b.