China’s export growth slowed to 7.0% y/y in July, down from 8.6% in June and below the median forecast. Exports have historically been a key driver of economic growth in China, and the softer reading is not positive for third quarter GDP, particularly as import growth accelerated by more than expected to 7.2% y/y from -2.3% in June. Weaker export growth may also indicate softer global demand; exports of aluminium and steel, automobile parts and machinery and lighting equipment all slowed on an annual basis last month. However shipments of high-tech products grew at a faster pace in July. Import growth was driven by oil and industrial metals.
Bahrain’s economy grew 3.3% y/y in Q1 2024, faster than the growth seen in the same quarter last year, but slower than in Q4 2023. The hydrocarbons sector GDP surprisingly grew 3.4% y/y in Q1 while non-oil growth slowed to 3.2% y/y from 4.9% y/y in Q4 2023. We expect non-oil growth to moderate to 2.7% in 2024 from 3.5% last year, before picking up again in 2025.
German industrial production rose by more than forecast in June, up 1.4% m/m while the annual rate improved to -4.1% y/y from -7.2% in May. As with factory output data released earlier this week, the main driver was increased autos and electrical equipment production.
Key Economic Data and events
08:30: RBI rate decision, forecast repo rate unchanged at 6.5%
16:30 US initial jobless claims (3 Aug) forecast 240k
16:30 US continuing claims (27 Jul) forecast 1871k
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