Ruler of Dubai and Vice President of the UAE Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid has approved the emirate’s budget for the years 2024-2026, it was announced yesterday. The plan earmarks expenditure of AED 246.6bn (USD 67.1bn) over the period, with AED 79.1bn planned for fiscal 2024. This marks a 17.2% increase on last year’s allocated budget, which was itself a 13% rise on the previous year’s. Salaries and wages, grants and government support expenditures, and general and administrative expenditures all account for roughly a quarter of planned spending each. The 2024 budget anticipates revenue of AED 90.6bn. The press release notes that Dubai’s budget balance will be in surplus at 3.3% of GDP over the 2024-26 period. We predict a surplus of 2.2% of GDP next year. The Dubai government’s aim remains to double the emirate’s GDP over the next decade, and the announced budget reaffirms the strategy of building the economy through the Dubai Strategic Plan 2030 and the Dubai Economic Agenda D33 which look to build up key industries and encourage inward investment. The allocation of 8% of the budget to construction projects underscores the commitment to ongoing infrastructure investment.
Chinese exports were down 6.4% y/y in October, a sharper annual decline than the 6.2% in September, and missing the projected 3.5% decline. By contrast, imports were up 3.0% y/y, from -6.3% in September and beating the projected -5.0%.
German factory orders surprised to the upside in September as they expanded 0.2% m/m, compared to the predicted 1.5% contraction. However, the August figure was revised down to 1.9% growth, from 3.9% previously. Orders were down 4.3% y/y. There was another upside surprise in the Sentix investor confidence index for November released yesterday which came in at -18.6, beating the predicted -22.2 and compared with -21.9 in October. The uptick was driven primarily by an improvement in the expectations subcomponent which rose from -16.8 to -10.0, while the current situation was largely unchanged.
The Reserve Bank of Australia hiked rates by 25bps to bring the Cash Rate Target to 4.35%. The RBA said that raising rates again was "warranted today to be more assured" of bringing inflation down to target levels. However, governor Michele Bullock seemed to water down expectations that the RBA would continue to hike, saying that any further moves would "depend upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks."
Today’s key economic data and events
11:00 Germany industrial production, % m/m, September. Forecast: -0.1%
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