Dubai GDP rises 3.1% y/y in the first 9 months of 2024

Dubai GDP rose 3.1% y/y in the first 9 months of 2024, relative to the same period in 2023. The transport and storage sector made a particularly significant contribution to growth over the period, growing 5.3% y/y over the period, with a weight of over 12% in GDP. Other industries which saw notable growth over the period include financial services which gained 4.5% and the ICT sector which grew 4.1%.

The Bank of England cut rates by 25bps, in a move that had been widely expected by markets, to take the lending rate to 4.5%. More surprisingly the vote was split 7-2, with two members of the committee voting for a larger 50bps cut. The latest BoE forecasts point to increasing concerns about stagflation, with the bank revising their forecast for inflation up from 2.8% in Q3 2025 to a peak of 3.7%, expectations for GDP growth were revised down to just 0.75% from 1.5% in previous forecast rounds. The accompanying MPC statement highlighted that cuts to bank rate would need to be “gradual”.

German factory orders rebounded sharply in December, rising 6.9% m/m, after contracting 5.2% m/m in November. The print was significantly higher than consensus expectations for a 2% m/m rise, and was in part driven by large-scale orders, without which the rise on the month would have been 2.2%.

US initial jobless claims in the week ending 1 February rose 11k to reach 219k, up from the 208k recorded the week prior. While the print was marginally higher than consensus expectations for initial claim to reach 213k, the level remains consistent with prints seen pre-Covid. Continuing claims rose to 1.87m in the week ending 25 January from 1.858m.

Today’s Economic Data and Events

• 11:00 GE industrial production Dec: forecast -0.7% m/m
• 17:30 US nonfarm payrolls data Jan: forecast 175k
• 17:30 US unemployment rate Jan: forecast 4.1%
• 19:00 US University of Michigan sentiment survey Feb: forecast 71.7

Fixed Income

• US treasury yields saw some gains on Thursday. The 2yr UST yield rose 3bps to close at 4.2118%, while the 10yr UST yield gained less than 2bps to reach 4.4342%.
• Major European bonds yields were generally higher on the day, with the exception of Greece and Italy, where 10yr yields saw marginal falls. The 10yr Gilt yield rose 5bps to reach 4.484%, while the 10yr Bund gained just over 1bps to 2.375%.

FX

• The US dollar spot index rose marginally on Thursday, gaining 0.1%. EURUSD fell 0.2% to 1.0383 and GBPUSD declined 0.56% on the day to reach 1.2435. USDJPY fell almost 0.8% to 151.41 with comments from officials at the BoJ pointing to further rate hikes over the course of 2025.
• Moves in commodity currencies were mixed against the dollar. USDCAD was broadly flat against the dollar, falling just 0.01% on the day to reach 1.4308. AUSUSD fell by a marginal 0.03% to 0.6283 and NZDUSD declined by 0.2% to 0.5675.

Equities

• US equity markets were mixed on Thursday, as investors look ahead to Friday’s nonfarm payroll print for further direction on the strength of the US labour market. The Dow Jones fell 0.28%. The S&P 500 gained 0.36% and the NASDAQ increased by 0.5%.
• European equity markets rose to a record level, driven by strong corporate earnings data. The Eurostoxx 50 gained 1.62%, the DAX and the CAC 40 both rose 1.4% and the FTSE 100 increased by 1.2%.
• Local markets moved in opposite directions on the day, with the DFMGI gaining 0.5% and the ADX falling 0.42%. The Tadawul rose 0.15%.

Commodities

• Oil futures fell on Thursday, with markets remaining concerned about US tariffs. Brent futures were 0.4% lower at USD 74.29/b, while WTI fell 0.6% to USD 70.61/b.