US factory orders fell in September

US factory orders fell 0.5% m/m in September, marking the fourth month of falls in the past five. The decline was in line with consensus expectations, with the advance durable goods print having signposted weaker activity. The August print was revised lower to -0.8% m/m from an initial 0.2% fall. The monthly change was more positive once the volatile transportation component is excluded, rising 0.1% m/m, with September seeing a sharp decline in orders of civilian aircrafts.

Headline CPI inflation in Turkey fell to 48.6% y/y in October, down from 49.4% the previous month but higher than the predicted 48.3%. Prices were 2.9% higher than they were in September, a modest slowdown from the previous 3.0% print. Core inflation was at 47.8% y/y, down from 49.1% previously. The headline October figure was the lowest since July 2023 but it is still close to the one-week repo rate of 50.0% and with monthly price growth still high the central bank will likely hold off from its first rate cut of this cycle at the upcoming November 21 meeting.

The Caixin China services PMI rose sharply in October, to reach as value of 52, up from 50.3 the month prior. The October print marked the highest value the series has achieved since the middle of the year. Chinese officials introduced a variety of economic stimulus packages in late-September, with investors expecting further fiscal policy expansion to be announced this week.

Today’s Economic Data and Events

• 19:00 US ISM Services index (Oct). Forecast: 53.8

Fixed Income

• US treasuries rose on Monday with markets reevaluating the “Trump trade”, as some weekend polls swung marginally towards Kamala Harris. The 2yr yield fell 5bps to 4.1599%, while the 10yr yield declined by 10bps to close at 4.2847%.
• European bond markets were mixed on Monday. 10yr UK gilts yields rose by 1bps to 4.4562%, and the 10yr Bund yield fell 1bps to 2.392%.

FX

• The dollar spot index declined on Monday, falling 0.4%, as traders paired back bets of a Trump win. EURUSD gained 0.4% to 1.0878, GBPUSD rose 0.26% to 1.2957 and USDJPY fell 0.58% to 152.13.
• Commodity currencies also gained against the dollar on the day. AUSUSD gained 0.4% to 0.6585, NZDUSD rose 0.17% to 0.5973, and USDCAD fell 0.33% to 1.3902.

Equities

• US equity indices fell on Monday, dampened by uncertainty over the US election on Tuesday. The Dow Jones fell 0.61%, the S&P 500 dropped 0.28% and the NASDAQ declined by 0.33%. European equity markets also fell on the day. The Eurostoxx 50 fell 0.53%, the CAC 40 declined by 0.5%, and the Dax dropped 0.56%. The FTSE 100 was the outlier, gaining 0.1%.
• Locally, the DFM fell 0.78% and the ADX declined by 0.56%.

Commodities

• Oil prices rose on Monday, driven by rising geo-political tensions in the region and the OPEC+ decision to delay returning barrels to the market. Brent futures rose 2.7% to USD 75.08/b, while WTI gained 2.85% to reach USD 71.47/b.