US labour market data paints mixed picture

The Challenger jobs report showed that announced cuts by US companies fell in November, down to 71,321 from roughly double that in October. Despite the slowdown in the pace of cut announcements, the print was still nonetheless the highest November in three years, and was up 24% y/y. The report also suggested that hiring intentions were 35% lower on a year-on-year basis.

In contrast, initial jobless claims painted a more positive picture of the US job market, although the Thanksgiving holiday may have distorted the seasonal adjustment. In the week ending 29 November initial claims for unemployment benefits rose 191k, below consensus expectations for a 220k increase, marking a three-year low in the series. Continuing claims for the week ending 22 November fell by 4k to 1,939k.

US factory orders rose 0.2% m/m in September. The print was markedly slower than the 1.3% pace of growth seen the month prior and marginally below consensus expectations for growth of 0.3% m/m.

The World Bank Gulf Economic Update report, published yesterday, suggests that the UAE would see growth of 4.8% in 2025. The report highlighted the role played by economic diversification, and the push for digital transformation.

Today’s Economic Data and Events

11:00 GE factory orders (Oct): forecast 0.3% m/m

19:00 US personal income (Sep): forecast 0.3% m/m

19:00 US personal spending (Sep): forecast 0.3% m/m

19:00 US PCE (Sep): forecast 2.8% y/y

19:30 US University of Michigan (Dec): forecast 52.0

Fixed Income

• Market reaction to the smaller-than-expected gains in claims data saw US treasury yields rise on Thursday. The 2yr yield gained 4bps to reach 3.5826%, while the 10yr yield rose 3.5bps to 4.0981%.
• With the exception of the UK, moves in European bond market yields were broadly higher on the day. French 10yr bond yields gained 3bps to 3.5222%, the 10yr Bund yields rose 2.4bps to 2.769% and UK 10yr Gilt yields fell just over 1bps to 4.433%.

FX

• The dollar spot index rose marginally on Thursday, gaining 0.1%. EURUSD and GBPUSD both fell 0.2% to 1.1644 and 1.3327, respectively. USDJPY declined 0.1% to 155.1.
• In emerging markets, USDINR fell back below the 90-mark declining 0.2% to 89.98, while USDZAR dropped 0.3% to 16.9961.

Equities

• There were small gains across the bulk of US equity indices on Thursday, with the outlook for a Fed cut next week unchanged despite lower-than-expected claims data. The Dow Jones fell by less than 0.1%, while the S&P 500 gained 0.1% and the NASDAQ increased by 0.2%.
• European stock markets gained on the day. The Euro Stoxx 50 and CAC 40 both rose 0.4%, the FTSE 100 was 0.2% higher and DAX rose 0.8%.
• Locally, the DFM gained 0.4% and the ADX rose 0.6%. The Tadawul rose 0.5%.

Commodities

• Oil futures rose on Thursday, with markets continuing to look for signs of progress on Russia-Ukraine talks. Brent rose 0.6% to reach USD 63.26/b, and WTI gained 0.7% to USD 59.69/b.
• Gold prices rose by less than 0.1% to USD 4,207.62/troy oz, while silver fell 2.3% to USD 57.14/troy oz.