Key developments

Midterms unsettle markets: Early results pointed to a change in congressional control in the US, threatening the administration’s fiscal agenda. Nasdaq and S&P 500 futures fell 2.0% and 1.1% respectively this morning following gains yesterday, the dollar weakened and the US 10-year Treasury yield dropped 7 basis points to 4.90%, reversing Tuesday’s rise.

Jobs challenge bond rally: September US vacancies reached 7.52mn, comfortably above the 7.1mn forecast, while layoffs fell to their lowest in over a year. Labour-market resilience supported December rate-hike expectations ahead of Friday’s payrolls.

Oil sheds risk premium: Brent fell 1.1% to $103.60/b yesterday on signs of progress towards a US-Iran agreement. Prices recovered are down a further 0.4% this morning even as news around talks this morning sends mixed signals.

Saudi fiscal strain deepens: The third-quarter deficit widened 145% quarter-on-quarter to SAR 84.3bn as oil receipts fell almost 40%. Output contracted 3.8% year-on-year, despite a shallower decline than in the second quarter.

Aramco beats expectations: Adjusted quarterly earnings of $31.2bn exceeded the $28.7bn consensus. Plans to maximise fourth-quarter production could support supply, although export-route risks remain.

Regional growth diverges: Saudi Arabia’s PMI eased to 54.0, but faster output growth suggested activity remained resilient as new orders moderated. Egypt’s unchanged 47.2 reading marked a tenth consecutive contraction; Saudi input-cost pressures intensified.

Inflation complicates policy: Türkiye’s October inflation exceeded forecasts at 29.77% year-on-year, though another year-end cut remains expected. Several ECB policymakers signalled December tightening as the inflation outlook worsened.

Today’s major data

Inflation and services: Eurozone October inflation is due at 14:00, forecast at 4.0% year-on-year; US ISM services follows at 19:00, with consensus at 54.8. UAE PMI is due this morning, while incoming midterm results remain the principal market catalyst.