Abu Dhabi GDP increases 3.8% y/y in Q2

Abu Dhabi’s real GDP rose 3.8% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2025, according to the Statistics Centre - Abu Dhabi, reaching AED 306.3bn. This represents a slight acceleration from the 3.4% growth recorded in Q1 2025.The non-oil economy continued to lead growth, accounting for 56.8% of GDP and maintaining robust momentum with 6.4% y/y growth. This marks a deceleration from the exceptional 6.6% non-oil growth seen in Q2 2024 but remains well above historical averages. The non-oil sector’s share of GDP has increased steadily, rising from 55.3% in Q2 2024 to 56.8% in Q2 2025, demonstrating the ongoing success of economic diversification efforts.

The S&P Global PMI for the UAE rose to a value of 54.2 in September up from 53.3 in August. The uptick marked the strongest pace of expansion in seven months, in large part driven by an improvement in the new orders sub-component which rose to 57.2 from 53.1. The headline PMI for Dubai also rose in September, increasing to 54.2 from 53.6 in August. Private sector firms in Dubai reported a decline in prices charged to consumers despite seeing their own input costs rise in September, as competition between firms remains strong.

The EU plans to raise steel import tariffs to 50% from 25% and reduce quota volumes by nearly half to 18.35 million tons, aligning with US rates to counter Chinese overcapacity. The new permanent regulation, replacing the current temporary safeguard expiring in June, will be unveiled next week. It includes “melt-and-pour” provisions to prevent steel rerouting through third countries and will be reviewed every five years from 2031. The move addresses Europe’s steel crisis amid cheap Asian imports and follows Trump’s recent 50% tariff hike. The EU simultaneously hopes to negotiate lower rates for its exports to the US.

The Egyptian central bank cut rates by 100bps on Thursday, reducing the deposit rate to 21%. The central bank suggested that upward price pressures were limited. Inflation rose 12% y/y in August, a moderation from the 13.9% recorded in July. 

Today’s Economic Data and Events

• 11:00 Turkey CPI YoY Aug. Forecast: 32.45%
• 18:00 US ISM Services Index Sep Forecast: 51.7

Fixed Income

• US Treasury yields saw moderate movements on Thursday. The 2-year UST rose 0.4 bps to 3.5347% while the 10-year yield fell 2bps to 4.0827%.

FX

• The DXY index rose 0.1% to 97.846. EURUSD closed down 0.1% at 1.1715 while GBPUSD declined 0.3% to 1.344. USDJPY rose 0.1% to 147.26.

Equities

• On Thursday, all three major U.S. stock indexes edged higher. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.2%, the S&P 500 gained 0.1%, and the NASDAQ climbed 0.4%
• Locally, DFM rose 0.5% while ADX increased by 0.4%. Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul closed down 0.3%.

Commodities

• Brent crude closed 1.9% lower at USD 64.11/b and WTI fell 2% to USD 60.48/b.
• Gold declined for the first time since September 24, falling 0.2% to USD 3856.58/troy oz. Silver also ended the day lower, dropping 0.7% to 46.99/troy oz.