OECD make upward revision to global growth outlook

Expectations for global growth have been revised up in the latest iteration of the OECD’s economic outlook, rising to 3.1% in 2024 from their February forecast of 2.9%. Underlying the headline forecast was an upward revision to the organization’s outlook for the US economy, which is now expected to grow at 2.6% in 2024 (previously 2.1%), together with stronger growth in both China and India. The OECD anticipate that declining global rates of inflation will allow for the general easing of monetary policy, which should support real incomes and spending.

US initial jobless claims remained unchanged from the week prior, at 208K in the week ending 27 April. The outturn was marginally below expectations of a rise to 211K. The four-week moving average fell to 210K from 214K. More generally claims remain very weak given the point in the monetary policy tightening cycle. Continuing claims also held steady, at 1.774m, in the week ending 20 April.

US factory orders rose sharply in March, increasing 1.6% m/m, up from a downwardly revised 1.2% rate of growth in February. However once transport-related orders are stripped out of the headline, factory orders grew by a smaller 0.5% m/m, down from 1.1% m/m in February.

Today’s Economic Data and Events

• 11:00 TU CPI (Apr). Forecast: 70% y/y
• 13:00 EC Unemployment rate (Mar). Forecast: 6.5%
• 16:30 US Nonfarm payrolls (Apr). Forecast: 240k

Fixed Income

• US treasury yields declined further on Thursday, following the Fed’s less hawkish than expected statement on Wednesday. Yields on the 2yr closed the day 9bps lower at 4.8727%, while 10yr yields fell 5bps to reach 4.5811%.
• European bond yields were generally lower on the day. The UK 10Yr gilt yield fell 8bps to reach 4.2853%, while the German 10yr Bund yield fell 4bps to 2.540%.

FX

• The US dollar fell further against a basket of peer currencies on Thursday, with the Fed indicating that the next interest rate move was unlikely to be a hike. EURUSD gained 0.12% to 1.0725 and GBPUSD rose 0.06% to 1.2534. The Japanese Yen also strengthened against the dollar again on Thursday, moving 0.6% to reach 153.64.
• Commodity currencies gained against the dollar on the day. AUDUSD and NZDUSD both rose 0.6% to reach 0.6565 and 0.5962, respectively. USDCAD fell 0.5% to 1.3674.

Equities

• US equity indices advanced on Thursday, driven by technology stocks. The S&P 500 gained 0.91%, the NASDAQ rose 1.51% and the Dow Jones gained 0.85%.
• European equity markets, in contrast, fell on Thursday after reopening from a holiday on Wednesday. The Eurostoxx 50 fell 0.62%, the CAC 40 dropped 0.88% and the DAX declined 0.2%. The FTSE 100 rose 0.63%.
• Locally, the DFM rose 0.18% while the ADX declined by 0.18%.

Commodities

• Oil prices were broadly flat on Thursday, with some signs of an easing in geo-political tensions. Brent futures rose marginally, gaining 0.3% to USD 83.67/b, while WTI declined by 0.06% to USD 78.95/b.