OECD expects global growth of 2.9% in 2026

The OECD left the outlook for global growth in 2025 and 2026 unchanged in their latest forecast round, with growth of 3.2% expected in 2025 before declining to 2.9% in 2026. The OECD noted that the global economy had remained resilient in the face of higher tariffs, supported by large-scale AI investment. Despite the unchanged aggregate forecasts, there were small upward revisions to the organization’s growth outlook for both the US and Eurozone in both 2025 and 2026. The OECD expect the Fed to cut rates just two more times, leaving the upper bound at 3.5%.

Turkish GDP growth slowed in Q3, printing at 3.7% y/y, down from an upwardly revised 4.9% in the second quarter. The slowdown was larger than had been expected, with a consensus prediction of 4.2% y/y growth. On a quarter-on-quarter basis growth was to 1.1%.

The US ISM manufacturing index fell unexpectedly in November, declining to a value of 48.2 from 48.7 in October. The index has now been below the neutral-50 mark for 9 consecutive months, with several respondents highlighting the impact of tariff-related uncertainty. There were falls in both the new orders and employment sub-components, while the prices paid measure rose to a value of 58.5 from 58.0 in October.

The provisional print of Eurozone CPI ticked higher in November, rising to 2.2% y/y from 2.1% the month prior. The uptick was driven by energy prices and service costs, with the latter rising 3.5% y/y from 3.4% the month prior. Core inflation remained steady at 2.4% y/y. Separately, the Eurozone unemployment rate remained at 6.4% in October, unchanged from the September print.

There were declines in the unofficial Chinese PMI, with the composite measure falling to a value of 51.2 in November from 51.8 on October. The fall was driven by declines in both the manufacturing index (which dropped to a value of 49.9 from 50.6 the month prior) and the services component (declining to 52.1 from 52.8). This follows the release of the official Chinese manufacturing PMI at the end of last week, which remained below the neutral-50 mark but rose to a value of 49.2 in November from 49.0 in October.

Today’s Economic Data and Events

11:00 TU CPI (Nov): forecast 31.59% y/y

14:00 EC PPI (Oct): forecast

17:30 US ADP employment change (Nov): forecast 20k

18:15 US industrial production (Sep): forecast 0.1% m/m

19:00 US ISM services index (Nov): forecast 52.0

Fixed Income

• Moves in US treasuries were muted on Tuesday. The 2yr yield fell 2bps to 3.508%, while the 10yr yield was flat at 4.0865%.
• European bond market yields, with the exception of France, were generally lower. UK 10yr Gilt yields fell just over 1bps to 4.468%.

FX

• The dollar spot index was broadly flat on Tuesday, with little in the way of US data releases and investors looking ahead to next week’s Fed meeting. EURUSD gained 0.1% to 1.1625, while GBPUSD was unchanged at 1.3213. USDJPY rose 0.3% to 155.88.
• In emerging markets, USDTRY fell 0.1% to 42.3608 and USDINR rose 0.4% to 89.875.

Equities

• US equity markets saw gains on Tuesday, driven by improved risk sentiment and expectations of a dovish Fed. The Dow Jones rose 0.4%, the S&P 500 gained 0.3% and the NASDAQ increased by 0.6%.
• Moves in European stock markets were mixed on the day. The Euro Stoxx 50 gained 0.3%, the FTSE 100 was flat, the CAC 40 fell 0.3% and the DAX increased by 0.5%.
• Locally, the DFM gained 0.4% and the ADX rose 0.5%. The Tadawul fell by less than 0.1%.

Commodities

• Oil futures fell on Tuesday, driven by talks between the US and Russia on ending the Ukraine conflict. Brent fell 1.1% to reach USD 62.45/b, and WTI declined 1.2% to USD 58.64/b.
• Moves in precious metals were mixed on the day. Gold prices fell 0.6% to USD 4,205.85/troy oz, while silver rose 0.8% to USD 58.47/troy oz.