Egypt sees growth of 5.3% in Q1 FY 2025/26

Egypt recorded GDP growth of 5.3% y/y in the first quarter of fiscal year 2025/26, according to a statement from the Minister of Planning. Strong growth was seen in non-oil manufacturing (14.5%), ICT (14.5%), and tourism (13.5%). Activity in the Suez Canal also made a positive contribution to growth for the first time since Q2 FY 2023/24.

A European Commission survey of economic confidence rose marginally in November, rising to a value of 97.0 from 96.8 in October. Underlying the headline measure was an improvement in the services sector (rising to 5.7 from 4.2 in October), as well as small gains in the retail and construction sectors. These gains were largely offset by a decline in economic confidence in the industrial sector.

Inflation in Tokyo, a leading indicator of price moves at the national level, held steady at 2.7% y/y in November. Excluding food and energy, inflation rose 2.8% y/y, also unchanged from its October reading. Separately, industrial production rose unexpectedly in October, gaining 1.5% y/y, significantly higher than consensus expectations for a 0.5% fall. Together the data should support the case for a rate hike by the Bank of Japan in coming months.

Today’s Economic Data and Events

• 11:45 FR CPI (Nov): forecast 1.0% y/y
• 13:00 EC ECB 1 year inflation expectations: forecast 2.6%
• 14:30 IN industrial production (Oct): forecast 2.4% y/y
• 14:30 IN GDP (Q3): forecast 7.3% y/y
• 17:00 GE CPI (Nov): forecast 2.4% y/y

Fixed Income

• US markets were closed for the Thanksgiving holiday.
• European bond market yields were generally higher on Thursday. UK Gilt yields gained just under 3bps to 4.448%, a partial rebound after a sharp drop on Wednesday following news of the budget.

FX

• The dollar spot index fell marginally on Thursday, declining by less than 0.1% against a basket of major peer currencies. EURUSD and GBPUSD were both broadly flat at 1.1596 and 1.324, respectively. USDJPY dropped by 0.1% to 156.31.
• There were bigger moves in commodity currencies on the day. AUDUSD rose 0.25% to 0.6534, NZDUSD rose 0.5% to 0.5729 and USDCAD fell 0.1% to 1.4031.
• In emerging markets, USDINR rose 0.04% to 89.3062, while USDEGP fell 0.15% to 47.65.

Equities

• With US markets closed for Thanksgiving, European stock markets saw muted moves on Thursday. The Euro Stoxx 50 fell 0.04%, the FTSE 100 gained 0.02%, the CAC 40 rose 0.04% and the DAX increased by 0.2%.
• Locally, the DFM gained 0.1% and the ADX declined 0.4%. The Tadawul rose 0.05%.

Commodities

• Brent futures gained 0.3% to reach USD 63.34/b. Markets will be looking ahead to Sunday’s OPEC meeting, where member countries are expected to ratify a decision to pause oil production increases in 2026.
• Gold prices saw marginals falls on the day, declining 0.1% to USD 4,157.61/troy oz, while silver rose 0.1% to USD 53.4/troy oz.