UAE signs new CEPA with Angola

The UAE has signed a new Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement, or CEPA, with Angola, marking a continuation of the strategy of pursuing new deals and furthering frictionless trade with diverse countries around the world – this latest CEPA follows on from others signed in 2025 including with New Zealand, Malaysia, and Ukraine. Bilateral non-oil trade between the UAE and Angola stood at USD 2.2bn in 2024 according to WAM, and it is expected that the new deal will help this grow to USD 10bn by 2033.

Saudi Arabia saw robust growth in exports in June. Non-oil exports were up 22.1% y/y, or 8.4% when stripping out re-exports which were up 60.2% compared with June 2024. Total exports rose to SAR 92.1bn, up around 3% y/y, while imports were at SAR 70bn, up from SAR 69bn a year earlier. Oil exports rose to SAR 65bn, up 9.0% on the previous month, as the eight OPEC+ members that had been implementing additional output cuts started bringing barrels back onto the market in June, coinciding with a price spike at the start of the month on the back of regional geopolitical tensions. Oil exports remained down 2.5% y/y, however.

US President Donald Trump has announced plans to remove Fed governor Lisa Cook from office around allegations of mortgage fraud. The move comes before Cook has received any charges, though the Department of Justice has said that it is investigating the matter, and it opens up the White House to allegations of political interference in monetary policy.

Germany’s IFO business climate survey improved to 89.0 in August, from 88.6 previously. This was driven by the expectations component which rose to 91.6, up from 90.7 and marking the highest level since 2022, boosted by the EU’s trade deal with the US. There was a marginal decline in the current assessment which fell to 86.4, from 86.5 in July.

Today’s Economic Data and Events

16:30 US durable goods orders, % m/m, July. Forecast: -3.9%

18:00 US conference board consumer confidence, August. Forecast: 96.5

Fixed Income

• US Treasury yields sold off modestly at the start of the week, offsetting some of Friday’s rally. Yields on the 2yr rose 3bps to 3.7235%, while the 10yr rose 2bps to 4.2751%. Yields on the short end have been falling once more following Trump’s announcement about ousting Lisa Cook, however.
• Alinma Bank has mandated banks for a perpetual USD 500m sustainable AT1 sukuk, according to press reports.
• Saudi Awwal Bank has also mandated banks for a 10yr USD benchmark green note.

FX

• The dollar index recouped some of Friday’s losses on Monday as it closed up 0.7% against its basket of peer currencies. Euro was the notable loser as it closed down 0.9% against the USD to close at 1.1618. GBP fell 0.5% to 1.3455.

Equities

• US equity markets sold off on Monday as some of Friday’s optimism dissipated. The NASDAQ, the Dow Jones, and the S&P 500 fell 0.2%, 0.4%, and 0.8% respectively.
• Locally, the DFM closed up 0.2% while the ADX ended the day all but flat. Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul closed 0.1% lower.

Commodities

• Oil prices remained positive on Monday as they notched a fourth straight day of gains. Brent crude closed up 1.6% at USD 68.8/b, while WTI ended the day 1.8% higher at USD 64.8/b.