Dubai’s CPI accelerated to 4.3% y/y in October from 3.8% in September, the fastest rate of inflation since March. The move was expected and entirely due to higher transport costs as petrol prices rose in October. Housing was unchanged on an annual basis at 6.1% y/y. Inflation is likely to moderate again in November as petrol prices declined m/m, and we retain our forecast for average CPI at 3.5% this year, down from 4.7% in 2022.
The Chancellor of the Exchequer announced two key giveaways in the UK Autumn statement. The first is a 2ppt reduction to employee’s contributions to national insurance, and the second is making the current temporary measure allowing business to deduct 100% of investment spending against pre-tax profits permanent. The fiscal watchdog, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), noted that while the announced measures reduce the tax burden by 0.5ppt, it still rises over the course of the next five years to a high of 38% of GDP.
US initial jobless claims were lower in the week ending 18 November, dropping to 209k from an upwardly revised 233k the week prior. The outturn was weaker than the 227k that had been expected. There was also a fall in continuing claims for the week ending 11 November, the first fall in 2 months, with the measure declining to 1.84m.
US durable goods fell 5.4% m/m in October, exceeding the 3.2% decline that had been expected. The drop on the month comes after a downwardly revised 4% m/m rise in September and was driven by weaker commercial aircraft and auto orders. Growth in durable goods, excluding transport, were unchanged between September and October.
Today’s Economic Data and Events
12:15 FR HCOB composite PMI, November: forecast 44.9
12:30 GE HCOB composite PMI, November: forecast 46.3
13:00 EC HCOB composite PMI, November: forecast 46.8
13:30 UK S&P Global/CIPS composite PMI, November: forecast 48.7
15:00 TU one-week repo rate: forecast 37.5%
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