US Conference Board leading index declines in September

The US Conference Board leading index declined 0.5% m/m in September, weaker than consensus expectations for a 0.3% decline. The headline measure was pulled lower by weaker factory orders and deteriorating consumer sentiment about the future economic outlook, although it is still nonetheless consistent with moderate growth in the remainder of 2024 and into the start of 2025.

Consumer prices in Oman rose by 0.4% y/y in September, down from 1.05% in August. The primary contributor was food and beverage prices which rose 2.8% y/y. Contributions from clothing, food, education, and housing in Kuwait drove consumer price inflation to 2.75% y/y in September, down marginally from 2.92%.

The 16^th annual BRICS summit kicks off in Russia today. The BRICS bloc which traditionally included – Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa – expanded its membership at the beginning of 2024 to include 4 new countries, one of which is the UAE. The inclusion of new countries to the bloc means that it now represents around 45% of the world’s population, predominantly from emerging economies.

Today’s Economic Data and Events

• No key data releases

Fixed Income

• US treasury yields moved sharply higher on Monday. With limited data releases markets reacted to comments made by a variety of Fed speakers. The 2yr yield rose 8bps to reach 4.0317% and the 10yr yield gained 11bps to 4.1956%.
• Major European bond market yields also ended the day higher. The yield on the 10yr Gilt rose 8bps to 4.1358%, while the yield on the 10yr Bunds gained 10bps to 2.281%.

FX

• The dollar spot index gained 0.5%. EURUSD fell 0.47% to 1.0815 and GBPUSD declined 0.5% to reach 1.2985. USDJPY gained 0.88% to once-again breach the 150-mark.
• Commodity currencies weakened against the dollar on Monday. USDCAD rose 0.2% to 1.3831, while AUDUSD fell 0.7% to 0.6659 and NZDUSD declined by 0.66% to close at 0.6031.

Equities

• There were broad-based falls in US equity market on Monday, ahead of a raft of earnings calls later this week. The Dow Jones fell 0.8%, and the S&P 500 declined by 0.2%. The NASDAQ was the outlier, gaining 0.27%.
• European equity markets also moved lower on the day. The EuroStoxx 50 index fell 0.9%, while both the CAC 40 and the DAX declined by 1%. The FTSE 100 fell 0.48%.
• Locally, the DFM rose 0.2%, while the ADX fell 0.28%.

Commodities

• Oil prices rose on Monday, reversing much of Friday’s decline, as traders wait to see how geo-political tensions in the region play out. Brent futures gained 1.7% to USD 74.29/b, while WTI rose 1.9% to USD 70.56/b.