CBE keeps rates on hold

The Central Bank of Egypt kept its benchmark overnight deposit rate unchanged at 27.25% yesterday. Disinflation has slowed in recent months, only dropping to 24.0% in January, from 24.1% the previous month, and the CBE cautioned that upside risks to the inflation outlook have risen, citing ‘the increasingly uncertain global and regional outlook regarding the impact of U.S. protectionist trade policies and geopolitical tensions.’ Despite the more cautious first meeting than had been anticipated at the start of the year, the path to lower interest rates remains and the central bank reiterated that ‘headline inflation is expected to decline substantially in Q1 2025, driven by the cumulative impact of monetary policy tightening and the favorable base effect’, although it did caveat that the fiscal measures of H2 2024 would mean that the slowdown would not be as sharp as it would otherwise have been.

The UAE’s Ministry of Economy has announced the launch of a new digital platform price tracker which will enable government officials to monitor the prices of a range of essential commodities including food staples eggs, rice, sugar, poultry, bread, and wheat across different retailers. According to Wam, Economy Minister Abdullah bin Touq al Marri stated that the initiative ‘reinforces the UAE's commitment to consumer protection, a stable market, and a competitive economy, aligning with the 'We the UAE 2031' vision.’ Food price inflation in the UAE averaged 2.1% over the first nine months of 2024.

CPI inflation in Oman ticked up to 1.0% y/y in January, from 0.7% in December, marking the fastest pace of annual price growth since August. Kuwait's CPI inflation was at 2.5% y/y in January, unchanged from the December print.

There was some evidence of cooling in the US labour market as it recorded initial jobless claims of 219,000 in the week to February 15, compared with 214,000 the previous week and moderately higher than the predicted 215,000. Continuing claims in the week to February 8 rose to 1.869mn, from 1.845 previously.

Today’s Economic Data and Events

11:00 UK retail sales, January, % m/m. Forecast: 0.5%

12:15 France manufacturing PMI, February. Forecast: 45.3

12:30 Germany manufacturing PMI, February. Forecast: 45.5

13:00 Eurozone manufacturing PMI, February. Forecast: 47.0

18:45 US manufacturing PMI, February. Forecast: 51.3

Fixed Income

• US treasuries saw a flattening of the curve yesterday as the 2yr yield was almost unchanged at 4.2699% while longer-dated securities rallied with the 10yr yield falling 3bps to 4.5053% and the 30yr down 2bps at 4.7468%.

FX

• The dollar index closed down 0.8% yesterday with all major currencies gaining against the greenback. JPY was a major gainer as it came back below the 150-mark for the first time since December, closing at 149.64 with a gain of 1.2%.
• GBP added 0.7% to 1.2669 as inflation data came in hot at 3.0%, while EUR was up 0.8% at 1.0501.

Equities

• US equities closed lower yesterday, with a warning from retailer Walmart raising concerns about the strength of the US consumer. The S&P 500, the NASDAQ, and the Dow Jones fell 0.4%, 0.5%, and 1.0% respectively.
• Locally, the DFM closed 0.2% lower while the ADX added 0.3% and Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul added 0.6% on the last day of its trading week, closing flat w/w.

Commodities

• Oil prices continued to gain yesterday as the supply outlook remains in question with reports of OPEC+ set to push back its return of barrels to the market once again. Brent futures closed up for the fourth straight session, adding 0.6% on the day to USD 76.5/b. WTI ended Thursday 0.4% higher at USD 72.6/b.