Chinese GDP grows 4.8% y/y in Q3

Chinese GDP rose 4.8% y/y in the third quarter of 2025, down from a 5.2% y/y pace of growth in Q2. The outturn marks the second consecutive quarter of weaker growth this year. Separately, retail sales for September rose 3% y/y, in line with expectations but lower than the 3.4% y/y growth seen in August. Industrial production data for September surprised on the upside, increasing 6.5% y/y, significantly higher than the 5% consensus expectation and the 5.2% growth recorded in August.

S&P downgraded France to A+ from AA-, citing uncertainty around the country’s budget. The move means that two of the three major credit agencies have cut the country’s AA rating in the past few weeks.

Eurozone consumer price inflation for September was confirmed at 2.2% y/y, up from 2.0% in August. Prices rose 0.1% on a month-on-month basis. Markets are currently not pricing in another cut from the ECB this year, with the central bank’s own projections for inflation at 1.7% in 2026 and 1.9% in 2027.

Today’s Economic Data and Events

• No key data releases

Fixed Income

• US Treasury yields rose on Friday after President Trump suggested that higher tariffs on China would be unsustainable, unwinding some recent haven demand. Both the 2yr and 10yr yield gained 3bps to reach 3.4573% and 4.0088%, respectively. Yields were still lower on a week-on-week basis, with the 2yr yield 4bps and the 10yr yield 2bps weaker.
• European bonds yields saw broad based rises on the day. The 10yr Gilt rose 3bps to 4.5297%.

FX

• The US dollar recovered marginally at the end of the week, with the spot index gaining 0.1%. Over the course of the week, the dollar spot remains 0.55% lower against major peer currencies.
• EURUSD fell 0.3% to 1.1655, while GBPUSD declined by 0.05% to 1.3427. USDJPY gained 0.12% to 150.61.
• In emerging markets, USDTRY gained just under 0.2% to 41.9207, and USDINR rose 0.16% to 87.9725.

Equities

• US equity markets rose on Friday, driven by optimistic comments from the White House regarding continued trade negotiations with China and strong earnings data from several regional US banks. The Dow Jones, S&P 500 and NASDAQ all rose just over 0.5% on the day. Despite a volatile few days in markets, all three indices all rose on a week-on-week basis.
• European equity markets pared earlier losses on Friday, but still ended the day in the red. The Eurostoxx 50 declined 0.8%, the FTSE 100 fell 0.9%, the CAC40 dropped 0.2% and the DAX fell 1.82%.
• In local markets the DFM dropped 0.6% while the ADX fell 0.4%.

Commodities

• Oil prices rose on Friday with Brent futures up 0.4% at USD 61.29/b and WTI up 0.14% to USD 57.54/b. The rise on Friday was insufficient to offset the sharp falls seen earlier in the week, with both Brent and WTI 2.3% lower on a week-on-week basis.
• Precious metal prices fell on Friday, following a rally earlier in the week driven by rising China-US trade tensions. Gold prices fell 1.73% to close at USD 4,251.82/troy oz, while silver dropped 4.28% to USD 51.92/troy oz.