Dubai inflation accelerates in October

Headline CPI inflation in Dubai accelerated to 3.4% y/y in October, up from 2.9% the previous month. This marked the fastest pace of annual price growth since August 2024. On a monthly basis, prices were up 0.6%, compared with 0.4% in September. Inflation has averaged 2.8% y/y over January to October. The primary driver of the acceleration in October’s headline inflation print was transport, which accounts for around 10% of the CPI basket and is heavily influenced by prices at the pump. From deflation of -0.9% in September, this was reversed to a price rise of 4.2% y/y in October, mirroring what happened with petrol prices.

Commercial property in Turkey saw a y/y rise of 30.0% in Q3, moderating from 32% over the previous two quarters and down from as high as 889% in Q2 2024. The pace of price growth has been moderating along with headline CPI inflation which has slowed to 32.9% y/y in October, from a peak of 85.5% in October 2022. The monthly house price index is due today, with a forecast y/y rise of 32.2%.

Dubai airline Emirates has ordered 65 new Boeing 777-9 aircraft at the Dubai Air Show, with the expectation of taking delivery from Q2 2027. The airline continues to invest in expanding and refreshing its fleet as its passenger numbers grow – in the 2024/25 financial year the airline carried 53.7mn passengers, y/y growth of 3.4%.

Today’s Economic Data and Events

11:00 Turkey house price index, % y/y, October. Forecast: 32.2%

18:15 US industrial production, % m/m, October

Fixed Income

• There was little concrete movement in USTs in either direction yesterday as markets await major data releases to start coming out once more following the extended government shutdown. Yields on the 2yr moved up by less than 1bps to 3.6101% while the 10yr yield closed down by 1bps at 4.1386%.
• The probability of a rate cut in December has fallen to just over 40%, but the outlook is far from unanimous amid Fed speakers. Christopher Waller is backing a cut, saying that the jobs market has neared ‘stall speed.’

FX

• The dollar index gained against its basket of peers yesterday as rate-cut bets diminished. It closed up 0.3% as it closed higher for the second straight session.
• Gains came against all majors, with commodity currencies in particular looking weak as oil prices fell. AUD ended own 0.7% at 0.6494, while CAD weakened 0.2% to 1.4055.
• GBP closed down 0.1% at 1.3156, while EUR lost 0.3% to 1.1592. JPY closed 0.5% weaker at 155.26.

Equities

• The stock selloff deepened yesterday ahead of the upcoming release of Nvidia earnings results and the delayed September NFP report later this week. In the US, the NASDAQ, the S&P 500, and the Dow Jones fell 0.8%, 0.9%, and 1.2% respectively.
• This followed losses earlier in the day in Europe where the DAX closed 1.2% lower and the FTSE 100 dropped 0.2%.

• Locally, the ADX fell 0.1% but the DFM ended the day 0.1% higher. The Tadawul closed almost flat in Saudi Arabia.

Commodities

• Oil prices headed closed down yesterday following the geopolitical bump seen at the close of last week, with an expected glut in global production once more trumping any concerns around Russian supply.
• Brent futures closed down 0.3% at USD 64.2/b, while WTI closed at USD 59.9/b, also down 0.3% on the day.